by Eurolng.com Staff
TTF weekly review: 10–17 October 2026
Why prices rose and what to expect until the end of the month
The European gas benchmark TTF continued its strong rally last week and settled near levels not seen since late 2022 – early 2023. The front-month contract climbed above €87–89/MWh, with a weekly gain of roughly 9–10%. Below is the price dynamics, the drivers behind the rise and a short-term outlook.
1. Price dynamics
At the start of the week (9–10 October) TTF traded around €80–81/MWh. By Monday–Tuesday prices accelerated: on 12–13 October the contract moved through €84–86, and by mid-week intraday highs reached €87.4–89/MWh. Friday 16 October closed near €88.5. By Saturday 17 October the level stabilised around €87.5–88.
| Date | Level (€/MWh) | Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9–10 Oct | ~80–81 | — | Week base |
| 12–13 Oct | 84–87+ | +4–6 € | Sharp rise |
| 14–16 Oct | 86–89 | Volatile | Highs since 2022/23 |
| 17 Oct | ~87.5–88 | Stabilisation | Elevated level |
Since the end of September the rise has been almost 20%. This is no longer a short-lived bounce but a sustained trend against a structurally tight supply backdrop.
2. Why prices rose
Geopolitics and Qatari LNG
The main driver remains constrained LNG supplies from Qatar and risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari exports in September fell to about 1.6 mt (less than a quarter of pre-crisis levels); October shipments are expected to be even lower. Tanker attacks and extended force majeure keep a risk premium in the market. Europe competes with Asia for flexible cargoes, which feeds directly into higher TTF.
Low EU storage
EU gas stocks in mid-October stood around 74% — well below the five-year average (~89%) and last year’s level. Germany is particularly weak at about 60%. This creates nervousness ahead of the heating season and supports the front-month premium.
Weather and short-term supply disruptions
Forecasts of colder weather in the second half of October raised expectations of an early pick-up in residential and commercial demand. The market also reacted to an unplanned outage at Norway’s Kårstø plant (around 13 mcm/d) and maintenance at Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago. Both factors temporarily tightened the balance.
Structural backdrop
Europe is increasingly dependent on LNG ahead of the planned full phase-out of Russian gas from 2027. Any supply disruption or surge in Asian demand is immediately reflected in TTF. The high share of spot LNG imports keeps the market sensitive to news from the Persian Gulf and to competition with the JKM benchmark.
3. What it means for small-scale LNG buyers
Small-scale LNG prices are formed as TTF + premium (logistics, terminal fees, supplier margin). With TTF around €85–90/MWh the delivered cost for an industrial customer can easily exceed €110–120/MWh depending on haul distance. High volatility complicates planning and makes formula contracts linked to TTF more transparent but also more risky for buyers’ budgets. Volume reservation and source diversification become critical.
4. Outlook to the end of October
Base case: TTF is likely to remain in the €80–95/MWh range until the end of the month. Structural factors (storage, Qatari LNG, geopolitics) will not disappear in two weeks. A moderate correction on profit-taking is possible, but a sustained move below €75–80 looks unlikely for now.
Key risks for the next two weeks:
- Escalation or de-escalation around Hormuz and actual Qatari export volumes
- Actual weather in Europe (colder than forecast = additional upside)
- Speed of recovery of Norwegian flows
- Competition with Asia for spot LNG cargoes
5. Conclusion
The week of 10–17 October confirmed that TTF is again trading with a high risk premium. The price rise reflects several factors at once: weak Qatari LNG supply, low storage, weather expectations and local outages. For the small-scale LNG market this means an expensive molecule component and greater importance of logistics efficiency. Until the end of October the market is likely to stay at elevated levels with heightened volatility.